Samsung Stock Prediction: ₩573,000 Bull Case vs ₩215,000…

Samsung Electronics’ common share did not trade on Monday 5 October 2026. The Korea Exchange was closed for the substitute holiday after National Foundation Day fell on Saturday. Naver Finance shows the last regular-session close for KRX: 005930 at ₩276,000 on Friday 2 October, unchanged, timestamped 2026-10-02T20:20:21+09:00. The KOSPI last printed at 7,003.74 at 2026-10-02T20:15:00+09:00. The October question is not whether an unfinished buyback can keep up with a memory cycle. It is whether a stronger won takes enough won out of a still enormous memory profit pool before the third-quarter preliminary figures.

In the same daily series the close was ₩261,000 on 1 September, ₩86,000 on 1 October 2025, and ₩362,500 on 18 June 2026, the high of the 243 sessions. The intraday high was ₩374,500 on 19 June. On 30 July, results day, the close was ₩207,000. The latest close is a third above that print and 23.9% under the June high. FinanceFeeds’ post-Chuseok note sat in that drawdown. The index is back through 7,000. The share is not.

What is happening in memory, foundry and the payout

Samsung’s own second quarter is the floor under every October preview. On 30 July the company reported consolidated revenue of ₩171.5 trillion, up 28% quarter on quarter, and operating profit of ₩89.5 trillion, and called both all-time highs. The 7 July guidance had put the medians at about ₩171 trillion of sales, inside ₩170 trillion to ₩172 trillion, and about ₩89.4 trillion of operating profit, inside ₩89.3 trillion to ₩89.5 trillion. The confirmed profit landed on the top of the range. Earnings per share for the common share and the preferred share rose 52% to ₩10,849. The results release does not say whether that 52% is versus the prior quarter or the prior year, so no base period is assigned here.

Device Solutions did the work: revenue ₩127.5 trillion and operating profit ₩89.2 trillion. Memory set records on both lines. Samsung said it scaled HBM4 sales, shipped the first HBM4E samples, and expects second-half server DRAM, enterprise SSDs and HBM to leave the market undersupplied. It named HBM4, DDR5, SOCAMM2, PCIe Gen6 and UFS 5.0. Foundry earnings improved before incentive provisions, on HBM base-die demand and US orders, with 2nm design wins. The second-half plan is a second-generation 2nm mobile ramp, more 4nm logic and base die, and double-digit foundry revenue growth, including demand from China as well as the United States. That is not a claim that foundry is profitable after provisions. MX and Networks lost ₩0.7 trillion on component costs despite solid Galaxy S26 and Galaxy A sales. Display made ₩0.7 trillion. Visual display and appliances, on ₩14.5 trillion of revenue, posted a slight loss.

Third-quarter price assumptions were not cut, and they do not agree. Hana’s Kim Rok-ho (1 October) has DRAM up 15% and NAND up 18%. Eugene’s Son In-jun (29 September) has DRAM up 17% and NAND up 18%, then 11% and 12% in the fourth quarter. Shinhan’s Kim Hyung-tae (30 September) has prices up 20% and 17%. Yuanta (23 September) has DRAM up 18% and NAND up 16%. Edaily, citing TrendForce, has fourth-quarter contract DRAM up 10% to 15% and NAND up 15% to 20%.

The payout has not been reset in any document opened here. The 30 July release announces neither a dividend nor a buyback. Naver, beside the ₩276,000 close, shows a 2025 dividend of ₩1,668 and a trailing yield of 0.60%. IBK’s Kim Woon-ho wrote on 2 October that interest in returns picked up after 21 August, that any buyback was unlikely to be large, and that the dividend could be a record. His note prints a 2026 forecast yield of 4.1% next to a ₩276,000 reference price and does not print the won amount, so none is invented here. October is an exchange-rate story on top of a memory result the company has already reported.

What Samsung and the brokers are saying into the print

Edaily reported on 5 October that Samsung will publish third-quarter preliminary results on 8 October. That release was not on the newsroom pages checked for this piece.

Financial News, citing FnGuide at 18:37 KST on 5 October, put third-quarter operating-profit consensus at ₩105.1968 trillion, ₩1.7467 trillion or 1.63% under the ₩106.9435 trillion screen of a month earlier. Net profit was cut 4.82% to ₩85.4640 trillion. Fourth-quarter operating profit was cut 2.85% to ₩119.1464 trillion, the first quarter of 2027 by 2.71% to ₩128.5307 trillion, and the second quarter of 2027 by 2.56% to ₩138.1858 trillion. Samsung and SK Hynix cuts from the fourth quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027 add to ₩14.1859 trillion. The SK Hynix case on this site is a separate share. Edaily, earlier that afternoon, was still on the month-ago ₩106.9435 trillion and a sales consensus of ₩200.7657 trillion.

The Korea Economic Daily at 18:11 cited a different third-quarter consensus, ₩109.4939 trillion for Samsung and ₩77.5495 trillion for SK Hynix, down 3.2% and 1.6% in a month. The Samsung figure matches neither FnGuide level in the later Financial News piece. This column uses the later FnGuide print and does not average the two. The broker notes opened in full are all still above ₩100 trillion for the quarter.

IBK’s other lines are third-quarter revenue of ₩195.2 trillion, DS profit of ₩101.8 trillion, display profit of ₩0.9 trillion and an MX loss of ₩1.1 trillion, with a second-quarter bonus booked in the third. Full-year operating profit is ₩356.892 trillion for 2026 and ₩585.390 trillion for 2027. His cover says ₩276,000 “as of 1 October.” Naver’s 1 October close was ₩274,500. The cases use the EPS cuts, not that label.

Outside the table, Shinhan’s ₩104.5 trillion is memory of ₩107 trillion (DRAM ₩79.6 trillion, NAND ₩27.4 trillion) minus losses elsewhere, and his roughly 40% HBM share for 2027 is his forecast, not guidance. Eugene has DX at a ₩1.8 trillion loss, with phone prices lagging memory costs, and foundry helped by HBM4 base die and Groq 3 LPU volume. Hana’s street EPS for 2026 is ₩47,736, beside Naver’s ₩47,142. IBK’s ₩43,637 is lower and later. Hana also flags 2027 depreciation at the Taylor, Texas, fab.

Kim Sung-no of BNK Investment & Securities told Financial News: “4·4분기부터는 반도체 가격상승률 둔화와 원·달러 환율 하락이 동반될 가능성이 높다는 점에서 코스피 제조업 매출성장률 둔화는 불가피해 보인다.” He expects slower chip-price gains and a lower won-dollar rate together from the fourth quarter. Ryu Hyung-keun of Daishin Securities said surprise can still come from price and volume, pointing at Micron. Lee Soo-rim of DS Investment & Securities told the Korea Economic Daily the share now turns on fourth-quarter mix and 2027 revisions, not the third-quarter print. Her firm has Samsung at ₩104 trillion, the dollar moved from ₩1,430 to ₩1,370, and DRAM prices up 16%.

A valuation a reader can recompute

Every percentage below uses the 2 October close of ₩276,000. Hana’s 1 October note lists 5,846,278.6 thousand shares. Times ₩276,000 that is about ₩1,613.57 trillion, in line with the ₩1,613.5729 trillion market cap Naver showed beside the quote. Foreign ownership on the 2 October flow table was 46.41%. Shinhan lists 5,846.3 million shares, the same count rounded. A second share count on the IBK cover is not used, because dividing that cover’s market cap by that cover’s share count does not recover the ₩276,000 printed next to it.

Naver’s June 2026 book is ₩86,052 and price-to-book is 3.21x. The product, ₩276,227, is the close within rounding, so the shares are not cheap on the last book. Trailing EPS of ₩22,292 gives 12.38x. Consensus EPS of ₩47,142 gives the 5.85x on the same screen. Investors are paying a full multiple of June book and a mid-single-digit multiple of forward earnings.

The cases do not use Naver’s consensus EPS. They use IBK’s 2027 figure of ₩71,615, the latest explicit cut opened here, because 2027 is the year HBM4 is supposed to be a full year of earnings rather than one quarter’s mix. At ₩276,000 the share is 3.85 times that EPS. IBK’s own ₩460,000 target is 6.42 times it. The cases are three round multiples of that one denominator, then rounded to the nearest ₩1,000.

Eight times ₩71,615 is ₩572,920, rounded to ₩573,000, 107.6% above the close, still under Yuanta’s ₩630,000. Five times is ₩358,075, rounded to ₩358,000, 29.7% above the close and still under IBK’s ₩460,000 and Naver’s ₩489,762 mean. Three times is ₩214,845, rounded to ₩215,000, 22.1% below the close. That bear case is close to the ₩207,000 close on 30 July, not to the ₩86,000 close of October 2025.

Shinhan’s book line is a cross-check, not a fourth case. Forward book of ₩125,105 times 3.6 is ₩450,378. The same 3.6 on June book of ₩86,052 is only ₩309,787, so most of his gap to the target is a higher book. Spot price-to-book is already 3.21x. On IBK’s 2026 EPS of ₩43,637 the three case prices are 13.1x, 8.2x and 4.9x, against 6.3x at the close. The base case is cheap only on 2027. The Seoul rally around GPT-6 was a demand headline. Tuesday’s reopen is a translation headline.

Regulatory and export-control tension

No new US Bureau of Industry and Security rule dated October 2026 was opened for this piece, and none is described. The tension that is actually in the documents is commercial.

The 30 July release puts Chinese customer demand and US orders in the same foundry outlook, beside a 2nm ramp and 4nm base-die sales. Hana adds Taylor depreciation in 2027. A tighter rule on shipments to China, or on US-origin tools, would land on a business Samsung has just called part of second-half growth. No October rule text was opened, so no threshold or effective date is stated here.

The Seoul Economic Daily on 5 October said it had read Samsung’s filing with the Thai Nguyen people’s committee. Samsung Vietnam Semiconductor was set up in March. Test fabs are going into Yen Binh zones CN-11 and CN-12, 265,895 square metres, at 105.7944 trillion dong, about ₩5.48 trillion, with 66.6401 trillion dong, about ₩3.45 trillion, to be funded later from local profit and with no bank debt in the plan. Line V1 takes equipment in July 2027 and starts in the fourth quarter of 2027. Line V2 starts in October 2028. Joo Seung-hwan of Inha University told the paper his reading is that HBM stays in Cheonan and Onyang while conventional testing moves to Vietnam. That is his reading, not a Samsung sentence, and it does not move HBM4 wafers out of Korea.

What happens next

Tuesday 6 October is the next weekday session. The ₩276,000 close is the reference until that auction. Thursday 8 October is the preliminary date Edaily has reported. A print near ₩105.1968 trillion would confirm the won cut and still be a record against ₩89.5 trillion. A print near IBK’s ₩101.7 trillion would miss that screen and still clear ₩100 trillion. A print near Hana’s ₩108 trillion would say the later dollar assumptions were too harsh. The call, which is not the same day as the preliminary statement, is where Lee Soo-rim’s question belongs: fourth-quarter mix, 2027 estimates, and HBM pricing power.

After the preliminary print, the company’s own second-half list is HBM4 and HBM4E, DDR5, SOCAMM2, the 2nm ramp and double-digit foundry growth, against the ₩0.7 trillion MX loss and any further won move. Eugene’s ₩114.9 trillion and FnGuide’s ₩119.1464 trillion are the two marks for the following quarter. The dated items beyond that are Hana’s 2027 rate of ₩1,340, IBK’s ₩71,615, and Vietnam equipment-in during July 2027. The dividend has no new date. Until a board resolution, the countable payout is ₩1,668 and a 0.60% yield.

Checked against the close: ₩276,000 is 6.3 times IBK’s 2026 EPS, 3.85 times his 2027 EPS, 3.21 times June book, and 23.9% under the 18 June high. The next fact that can retire a case is the 8 October preliminary release, read against the won.

Disclaimer. This is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a broker research report. FinanceFeeds has no Samsung price target. The bull, base and bear prices are arithmetic on IBK’s published 2027 earnings per share of ₩71,615, rounded to the nearest ₩1,000. They are not a prediction that the share will trade there. Figures are for the common share, KRX: 005930, in won, not the preferred share 005935 and not an American depositary receipt. Estimates and exchange rates change. The 5 October 2026 regular session did not produce a new official close in the sources used here.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Samsung price is this prediction using?

The cases use the Korea Exchange common share, ticker 005930, not the preferred line 005935 and not an ADR. Naver Finance’s last regular-session close was ₩276,000 on 2 October 2026, timestamped 2026-10-02T20:20:21+09:00, unchanged on the day. No 5 October bar was on the feed. The exchange was shut that Monday for the National Foundation Day substitute holiday, after the public holiday itself fell on Saturday.

How are the ₩573,000 bull case and the ₩215,000 bear case calculated?

They are not street targets. IBK’s 2 October 2026 note cut 2027 earnings per share to ₩71,615. Eight times that is ₩572,920, rounded to ₩573,000. Three times it is ₩214,845, rounded to ₩215,000. The base case is five times, ₩358,075, rounded to ₩358,000. Versus the ₩276,000 close those are +107.6%, −22.1% and +29.7%. A reader can redo the multiplication if IBK revises the EPS.

When does Samsung report third-quarter results?

Edaily reported on 5 October 2026 that Samsung will publish third-quarter preliminary results on 8 October. That release was not on the newsroom pages opened for this piece. Confirmed second-quarter results, published 30 July, were revenue of ₩171.5 trillion and operating profit of ₩89.5 trillion. Preliminary figures can still be revised when the full quarter is reported, and the call is a separate event from the preliminary statement.

Why are forecasts falling if memory prices are still rising?

The notes opened here did not cut DRAM or NAND price assumptions. Hana, Eugene, Shinhan and Yuanta still model double-digit quarterly price increases. The cuts are the won. Hana moved its dollar rate from ₩1,500 to ₩1,415. Eugene moved from ₩1,440 to ₩1,400. A lower won-per-dollar figure reduces the won value of dollar-priced memory. Several notes also book bonus provisions in the third quarter. Those are the two drags, not a call that the shortage is over.

What did Samsung itself say about HBM and foundry?

In the 30 July 2026 results release Samsung said it had scaled HBM4 sales and shipped the first HBM4E samples. It said second-half server DRAM, enterprise SSD and HBM demand should leave the market undersupplied. Foundry earnings improved before incentive provisions, on HBM base-die demand and US orders, and the company is targeting double-digit foundry revenue growth, including demand from China as well as the United States. It did not give a new dividend or buyback figure in that release.

Is ₩573,000 what brokers currently say?

No. Naver’s mean target on 2 October was ₩489,762. IBK is at ₩460,000, Hana at ₩480,000 and Shinhan at ₩450,000. Eugene is at ₩560,000 and Yuanta, from 23 September, is at ₩630,000. The bull case is an 8x multiple on one 2027 EPS figure. It sits above the cluster of targets near ₩450,000 to ₩490,000 and below the two highest targets opened for this piece. It is a case, not a consensus.