Updated 22 September 2026, 13:00 UTC
Brent crude (November futures): $98.55 a barrel, down about 1.8% from Monday’s settlement of $100.34, after touching $97.44 earlier in the session (Yahoo Finance, ICE futures data). WTI trades near $90.16, down about 2.4%.
Verdict: Brent has broken below $100 for the first time since 9 September (The National), and unlike Monday’s brief dip it is trading well under the line, not just touching it. The drivers are supply, not demand: Saudi exports are coming back and Iran has put a Hormuz reopening on the table. The move sticks only if tankers actually move; a failed round of diplomacy at the UN puts $105 back in play within days.
Key facts
- On course for a fifth straight loss. Brent fell 3.7% on Monday to about $100.07 by the late-U.S. session, after briefly trading under $100 (Investing.com), and extended the slide on Tuesday. It settled at $108.75 as recently as 15 September (Yahoo Finance daily data).
- Iran’s offer. Tehran signalled it is willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade of Iranian ports (The National, 22 September).
- Saudi oil is flowing again. Saudi Aramco restarted its East-West pipeline at a reduced rate, with Red Sea exports from Yanbu expected to resume, and loaded about 14 million barrels onto seven supertankers in the Gulf on Sunday (The National).
- Satellite data backs the trend. Saudi crude moving through Hormuz averaged about 2.9 million barrels a day over the six days to 18 September, up from roughly 700,000 in August, according to JPMorgan satellite data cited by The National.
- But the strait is still nearly empty. Only two commercial vessels transited Hormuz on Monday, against about 125 a day before the conflict (The National). The market is pricing an expected reopening, not an actual one.
Why $100 matters for oil traders
Round numbers are psychological, but $100 has also been a practical dividing line this month. Brent went from about $97.92 on 8 September to $107.63 two sessions later, after the attack on Saudi pipeline infrastructure pushed supply fears back to the front (Yahoo Finance daily data). Everything since has been the market unwinding that spike as Saudi flows recovered – a story we followed through the East-West pipeline restart and Monday’s slide to $101.
A settlement below $100 would mean the war premium added on 9-10 September has been fully given back. Monday’s dip under the line did not stick. Tuesday’s settlement is the test: a close below $100 would be the first since 8 September.
The diplomacy trade at the UN
This week’s price action is tied closely to the UN General Assembly in New York. Interactive Brokers strategist José Torres noted that Middle East tensions appear to be cooling, with President Trump seemingly open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during the gathering (as quoted by Investing.com). Iran’s conditional Hormuz offer arrived on top of that.
The conditions are the catch. Iran wants the U.S. blockade of its ports lifted and military pressure eased before it reopens the strait. Both conditions ask Washington to move first. Traders who sold Brent below $100 are betting that a deal, or at least a clear path to one, comes out of New York this week. If talks stall, the two-vessels-a-day reality of the strait will reassert itself quickly.
What is still holding prices up
Even at $98, Brent is far above where forecasters expected it to be once supply normalises. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook sees Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026 and falling to about $77 by the second quarter of 2027 as Middle East exports recover and shut-in output restarts. Goldman Sachs kept a $80 fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast in July, conditional on U.S.-Iran tensions easing by year-end (Oil & Gas 360).
Fuel markets are the pressure point. U.S. retail diesel is about $6.50 a gallon, the highest this year, and a Rystad Energy economist warned that $100 Brent and diesel at that level are already squeezing consumers (The National). Lower crude would take a while to reach the pump.
Scenarios into late October
| Scenario | Level | Anchor | What has to happen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $90 -8.7% from spot |
EIA September STEO: Brent ~$90 average in 2H26 | A U.S.-Iran understanding at the UN, Hormuz traffic visibly recovers and Yanbu exports run at full rate. |
| Base | $100 +1.5% from spot |
Monday’s settlement near $100.34; the line Brent is testing now | Talks continue without a deal; Saudi flows keep improving but the strait stays mostly shut. |
| Bull | $108.75 +10.4% from spot |
15 September settlement of $108.75 | Diplomacy collapses, a new attack hits Gulf infrastructure, or the Saudi pipeline restart stalls. |
Quick Take
Brent below $100 is the market giving back the entire war premium it added on 9-10 September, driven by returning Saudi exports and Iran’s conditional offer to reopen Hormuz. It is a supply story built on expectations: only two ships crossed the strait on Monday. Watch the UN talks and the daily Hormuz transit count. Real traffic makes $90 – the EIA’s second-half average – a reasonable target; a breakdown in diplomacy puts $105 to $109 back on the screen fast.
What it means beyond oil
Cheaper crude has been one of the tailwinds behind this week’s risk rally, easing inflation worries and Treasury yields. It helped lift crypto too: Bitcoin broke above $85,000 on Monday (see our Bitcoin price analysis). The reverse also holds: a renewed oil spike would be the most direct macro threat to both equities and crypto this week.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
About $98.55 a barrel for November Brent at 13:00 UTC on 22 September 2026, down roughly 1.8% on the day. It touched $97.44 earlier in the session.
Why is oil falling today?
Saudi Aramco restarted its East-West pipeline and Red Sea exports are resuming, while Iran signalled it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the U.S. lifts its port blockade and eases military pressure. Hopes for diplomacy at the UN General Assembly added to the selling.
When was Brent last below $100?
Brent last settled below $100 on 8 September, at $97.92, and traded under it early on 9 September before the attack on Saudi pipeline infrastructure drove it to about $109 the next day (Yahoo Finance daily data). It dipped under $100 briefly on 21 September but settled above it.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Not in practice. Only two commercial vessels transited on 21 September, against about 125 a day before the conflict. Iran’s offer to reopen it is conditional on U.S. concessions.
What is the EIA forecast for Brent?
The September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026, falling to about $77 by the second quarter of 2027.
What is WTI crude trading at?
About $90.16 a barrel at 13:00 UTC on 22 September, down roughly 2.4% on the day.
Could Brent go back above $105?
Yes, if the UN diplomacy fails or Gulf supply is disrupted again. Brent settled at $108.75 as recently as 15 September.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance (ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures quotes, 22 September 2026, 13:00 UTC; Brent daily settlements for September), The National (Hormuz offer, Aramco restart, JPMorgan satellite data, vessel transits, diesel price and Rystad comment, 22 September), Investing.com (21 September close and Interactive Brokers comment), U.S. EIA (September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook), Oil & Gas 360 (Goldman Sachs forecast, July 2026). Oil futures trade almost around the clock and prices may have moved since publication.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Commodity futures are highly volatile and leveraged, and you may lose some or all of your capital. Price scenarios are illustrative and not forecasts. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.