Updated 11 November 2026, 13:30 GMT, one day before Q3 results. Cerebras (CBRS) closed Tuesday at $93.66, down 3.1 percent, after Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $178 from $279 (MarketBeat; Yahoo Finance). Verdict: the stock is about 49 percent below its $185 IPO price going into Thursday’s report, with the main lock-up already over. Q3 core revenue guidance is $214 million to $216 million. Reference levels after the print: $110 above, $78 below.
Key facts
- Tuesday close: $93.66, down $3.04 or 3.1 percent from Monday’s $96.70, in a range of $90.72 to $99.82 (Yahoo Finance; MarketBeat).
- Results date: Q3 2026 results on Thursday 12 November after the US close, with a conference call at 5 p.m. ET, 22:00 GMT.
- Company guide for Q3: core revenue of about $214 million to $216 million, core gross margin of 38 to 40 percent and core operating margin of minus 25 to minus 23 percent.
- Full-year guide: 2026 core revenue of $880 million to $890 million, raised from $855 million to $865 million in August (Barchart).
- Consensus: revenue of about $215.8 million and a loss of 13 cents per share (Zacks); Barchart also puts the expected loss at 13 cents.
- Morgan Stanley: target cut to $178 from $279 on 10 November, with the Overweight rating kept (MarketBeat).
- Consensus target: $261.80, with a Moderate Buy rating (MarketBeat).
- 52-week range: $77.84 to $386.34; the low was set on 5 November.
Where Cerebras stands before the report
Cerebras listed on the Nasdaq on 14 May at $185 a share. It trades about 49 percent below that price after a fall that took it to an intraday low of $77.84 on 5 November. The stock closed at $89.68 the next day and gained ground on Monday 9 November, the day the main IPO lock-up ended. Our lock-up report sets out that up to about 171.1 million shares could be released over the full lock-up period.
Tuesday’s 3.1 percent fall followed Morgan Stanley’s target cut. MarketBeat reported that insiders sold 1,924,452 shares worth about $394.6 million over the past 90 days.
What to watch in the Q3 numbers
Core revenue against the guide. The company guided to about $214 million to $216 million, and consensus sits near the top of that range. In Q2, Cerebras reported GAAP revenue of $180.1 million and core revenue of about $209.9 million, so the guide implies only modest growth from one quarter to the next.
Gross margin. The Q3 core gross margin guide of 38 to 40 percent is below Q2’s 41 percent. In June, after its first report as a public company, the stock fell 14 percent when its full-year margin forecast disappointed, according to Reuters. Margin guidance was the number that moved the stock last time.
Full-year guide. Any change to the $880 million to $890 million core revenue forecast will be the main signal for 2027. One analyst preview expects a modest revenue beat and a higher guide, tied to OpenAI commitments and demand for faster inference (GuruFocus).
Backlog. Remaining performance obligations were $25.4 billion as of 30 June. An update shows how much of the OpenAI commitment is turning into revenue.
The same AI spending question is driving other names this week. CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue guide on Tuesday night, which lifted chip stocks before Wednesday’s open; our CoreWeave page has the figures.
What analysts are saying
Most firms have cut their targets in the past month while keeping positive ratings. Morgan Stanley went to $178 from $279 on 10 November, UBS to $250 from $330 on 2 November, and TD Cowen to $175 from $275 on 19 October, according to MarketBeat. Wedbush cut its target by $100 to $190 and kept an Outperform rating. Citi has a $320 target (Gotrade data), and Barclays analyst Thomas O’Malley reiterated a Buy rating and a $280 target (Barchart).
Even the lowest of these targets is well above the current price. They mostly show what analysts expect from revenue in 2027, not what the stock will do after Thursday’s print. A short report from Culper Research, disclosed on 28 October, is the main bear argument in circulation, according to Barchart. Our Cerebras stock forecast sets out the longer-range scenarios.
Cerebras stock: bull, base and bear after Q3
| Scenario | CBRS | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $78 | Revenue meets the guide but margins or the full-year forecast disappoint, as they did in June. | The $77.84 intraday low of 5 November; about 17 percent below Tuesday’s close. |
| Base | $88-$100 | Results land close to the guide and the stock stays in this week’s range. | The $89.68 close of 6 November and Tuesday’s $99.82 high. |
| Bull | $110 | Revenue beats, the full-year guide rises again, and the backlog shows OpenAI demand turning into sales. | About 17 percent above Tuesday’s close, a move in the other direction of similar size to June’s 14 percent fall. |
The bear case sits below the current price. These are reference levels measured from Tuesday’s close, not forecasts. We found no options-implied move from two independent sources, so none is quoted here.
What to watch
- Thursday 12 November, after the close: Q3 results; the call starts at 5 p.m. ET, 22:00 GMT.
- Core gross margin: against the 38 to 40 percent guide.
- 2026 core revenue guide: against $880 million to $890 million.
- $77.84: the 52-week low and the first level below.
- 17 November: Nvidia’s results, the next major reading on AI chip demand.
Quick take: Cerebras closed at $93.66 on Tuesday after Morgan Stanley cut its target to $178. The stock goes into Thursday’s Q3 report about 49 percent below its IPO price, with the lock-up behind it. Margins and the full-year guide decide whether it moves toward $110 or back to the $78 low.
FAQ
When does Cerebras report earnings?
Cerebras reports Q3 2026 results on Thursday 12 November after the US market close. The conference call starts at 5 p.m. ET, 22:00 GMT.
What is Cerebras’ stock price today?
Cerebras closed at $93.66 on Tuesday 10 November, down 3.1 percent, according to Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat. The regular session opens at 14:30 GMT.
What are analysts expecting from Cerebras’ Q3?
Zacks expects revenue of about $215.8 million and a loss of 13 cents per share. The company guided core revenue to about $214 million to $216 million and core gross margin to 38 to 40 percent.
Why did Cerebras stock fall on Tuesday?
The stock fell 3.1 percent after Morgan Stanley cut its price target to $178 from $279. The firm kept its Overweight rating, according to MarketBeat.
What is the Cerebras stock price target?
MarketBeat lists a consensus target of $261.80 with a Moderate Buy rating. Recent targets range from $175 at TD Cowen to $320 at Citi. Price targets are not guarantees.
Has the Cerebras lock-up expired?
The main IPO lock-up ended on 9 November. Up to about 171.1 million shares could be released over the full lock-up period, including up to 15 million held by directors and officers.
Sources: MarketBeat, 10 November (Morgan Stanley note, close, analyst targets, insider sales, consensus); Yahoo Finance (close and day range); Gotrade (52-week range, Citi target); Barchart via Yahoo Finance, 6 November (estimates, full-year guide, Barclays, Culper Research); Zacks (consensus revenue and EPS); Reuters, 24 June (June reaction); Cerebras Q2 results and guidance, via FinanceFeeds coverage, 9 November.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.