Lumentum does not become a $1,132 stock because a merger release printed that figure. Nasdaq’s historical file puts the official close on Monday 2 November 2026 at $684.40, down $156.30, or 18.59 percent, from Friday’s $840.70. On the last 90 daily log-returns and 41 sessions through 31 December 2026, the bull is $1,128.85, the base is $616.13 and the bear is $411.49. A beat plus a premium deal is the obvious reading. It misses the fixed exchange ratio of 4.500 Marvell shares. Monday’s close is a discount to Marvell’s tape, not a verdict on a quarter that was already public.
On 5 October the company said fiscal first-quarter 2027 results would come after the close on Thursday 5 November, with a webcast at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. The results page is dated 2 November, the same day as the Marvell agreement. The quarter is out. Year-end is still a path on two stocks.
Key facts
- Official close: $684.40 on Monday 2 November 2026, down $156.30, or 18.59 percent, from Friday’s $840.70, on 15,342,990 shares. Low $679.00. Open and high $802.55 (Nasdaq historical file).
- Fiscal Q1 2027, ended 26 September 2026: net revenue $1,262.6 million, up 136.5 percent year on year. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $4.57. GAAP net income $360.3 million, or $3.54 a share (Lumentum release, 2 November 2026).
- Fiscal Q2 2027 guide: revenue $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion, non-GAAP operating margin 45.0 percent to 46.0 percent, non-GAAP diluted EPS $5.90 to $6.20 (same release).
- Deal: 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, implied enterprise value $115 billion, approximately $1,132 a share, a premium of approximately 23.9 percent to the 28 October 2026 closes. Close aimed at the first half of 2028 (joint release, 2 November 2026).
- Live ratio: 4.5 times Marvell’s Monday close of $171.41 is $771.35, or $86.95, 12.70 percent, above Lumentum’s $684.40 (Nasdaq files).
- Averages: the 20-day simple average is $901.46 and the 50-day is $919.26. Monday sits 24.08 percent and 25.55 percent under those lines (Nasdaq historical file).
- Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $2.0 billion, down $758.8 million. Net property, plant and equipment rose to $1,410.4 million from $1,159.1 million (Lumentum release, 2 November 2026).
- Separate analyst number, not this title: StoneX Buy and a $1,200 target, cited against the 26 October close of $818.10, which the Nasdaq file matches (FinanceFeeds, 27 October 2026).
What just happened, and why the beat is the wrong headline
Two documents landed on Monday. Lumentum reported fiscal Q1 2027, and Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in stock. The joint release says the quarter was reported in connection with the announcement. The 5 November date on the 5 October note is no longer what the tape is waiting on.
On 11 August the company guided fiscal Q1 revenue of $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, a non-GAAP operating margin of 39.5 percent to 40.5 percent, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.05 to $4.35. The result was $1,262.6 million, a 42.3 percent non-GAAP operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS of $4.57. Revenue was inside the range. The margin was 1.8 points above the top. EPS was $0.22 above the top.
Components were $754.2 million, 59.7 percent of revenue, up 16.1 percent sequentially and 98.9 percent year on year. Systems were $508.4 million, 40.3 percent of revenue, up 42.4 percent sequentially and 228.8 percent year on year. Adjusted EBITDA was $578.0 million, against $406.4 million in June and $127.6 million a year earlier. That is not a miss.
The open was the high, at $802.55, and the low was $679.00. Volume was 15,342,990 shares, against 7,733,743 on Friday. A premarket print of $699.96, time-stamped 8:13 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday 3 November on the Nasdaq info endpoint, is not a close. This path uses Monday’s completed bar.
Marvell closed at $171.41, down $24.99, or 12.72 percent, from $196.40. Friday’s paper bid was 4.5 times $196.40, or $883.80. Monday’s was $771.35. The paper bid fell $112.45 while Lumentum fell $156.30, so the gap widened from $43.10 to $86.95. FinanceFeeds reported the talks before the ratio was signed. The signed ratio turns each later Marvell close into a Lumentum price.
Who is exposed
Lumentum stockholders are offered about 33 percent of the combined company, fully diluted. Marvell stockholders keep about 67 percent and pay in shares. Matt Murphy stays chairman and chief executive. Three Lumentum directors, including Michael Hurlston, join a board the release says now has seven directors. Both boards approved. Closing still needs both shareholder votes and regulatory approvals, and the companies put it in the first half of calendar 2028.
A standalone-optics holder is now long a Marvell claim that does not settle this quarter. A Marvell holder is long dilution plus an expectation of more than $1 billion in annual run-rate cost synergies, with non-GAAP earnings accretion only in the first year after closing. The release does not name a hyperscaler order. It does cite purchase commitments above $5 billion. Commitments are not the $508.4 million of systems revenue already recognised.
Peers sit on a different contract. The 2 October sector note treated Lumentum, Coherent, Ciena and Corning as one tape and argued the label was too coarse. A 200G laser shortage can still move a peer. It does not set this close while the ratio is 4.500. The accounts whose profit and loss is the spread are the ones long the target and short the buyer.
Andrew Collins wrote on Tuesday that the selloff looked mostly transaction-driven, that arbitrage funds bought Lumentum and shorted Marvell, and that “Lumentum closed at $684.40 while the exchange value was around $771 at that point, leaving an approximately 11% spread.” The $684.40 matches the Nasdaq file. The exchange value on the same closes is $771.35, and the gap is 12.70 percent of the Lumentum close, or 11.27 percent of the $771.35 paper bid. His round number and the file describe the same gap. The post is x.com/realACollins/status/2117600616411242570.
What the tape and the primary documents show
Monday’s $684.40 is $217.06 under the 20-day average of $901.46 and $234.86 under the 50-day average of $919.26. From 27 October to 2 November the high was $978.40 and the low was $679.00, so the close is $294.00 under that high and $5.40 above that low. The prior five sessions bottomed at $756.00. Monday finished under that whole range.
The 2026 high close is $1,133.40 on 6 October, and Monday is 39.62 percent below it. The file high of $1,143.00 on 9 October matches the 52-week high on the Nasdaq info endpoint, whose range is 184.20 to 1,143.00. From the 31 December 2025 close of $368.59, Monday is still up 85.68 percent.
Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue was $1.01 billion in the headline and $1,006.3 million in the table, up 109.3 percent year on year, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.23. GAAP net loss was $7.2 billion, or $84.65 a share, from a non-cash debt-extinguishment loss of $7.8 billion. The Q1 reconciliation lists that June line at $7,756.6 million. Monday’s drop is not that item. Plant rose $251.3 million while cash and short-term investments fell $758.8 million, to $2.0 billion.
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 guide, 11 August | Revenue $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion. Non-GAAP margin 39.5 percent to 40.5 percent. EPS $4.05 to $4.35. | Lumentum Q4 release |
| Q1 result, 2 November | Revenue $1,262.6 million. Non-GAAP margin 42.3 percent. EPS $4.57. GAAP EPS $3.54. | Lumentum Q1 release |
| Q2 guide | Revenue $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion. Non-GAAP margin 45.0 percent to 46.0 percent. EPS $5.90 to $6.20. | Same release |
| 28 October paper price | 4.5 times Marvell’s $251.65 is $1,132.43. Lumentum closed at $913.95, a 23.90 percent gap. | Nasdaq files and the joint release |
| Monday paper price | 4.5 times $171.41 is $771.35, against Lumentum at $684.40. | Nasdaq files, 2 November 2026 |
| This path | Bull $1,128.85, base $616.13, bear $411.49. | 90 log-returns, N of 41, to 31 December 2026 |
What the named executives have said
Michael Hurlston, president and chief executive of Lumentum, said in the 2 November results release: “Looking ahead, we anticipate adding approximately $350 million in sequential growth in our second quarter, a figure greater than the quarterly revenue of the whole company just two years ago.” The midpoint of the new revenue guide is $1.600 billion. Against $1,262.6 million, that midpoint is an increase of $337.4 million, close to the “approximately $350 million” line.
He also said second-quarter operating margin should exceed 45 percent. The formal guide is 45.0 percent to 46.0 percent non-GAAP, after a Q1 non-GAAP margin of 42.3 percent and a GAAP margin of 28.5 percent. Stock-based compensation and related payroll taxes were $146.7 million, against $50.1 million in June. Diluted shares were 101.7 million, against 78.3 million a year earlier, up 29.9 percent. Basic shares were 92.5 million.
Matt Murphy, chairman and chief executive of Marvell, said in the joint release: “AI infrastructure is undergoing a fundamental architectural shift toward optical connectivity, creating an opportunity that comes along once in a generation.” Hurlston’s deal sentence, in the same release, is: “Joining Marvell creates a company uniquely positioned to capitalize on a market opportunity of $550 billion and generate significant, sustainable stockholder value.” Those are statements about a combined company that does not exist until 2028 if the timetable holds. They are not a forecast of the 31 December Lumentum print.
EarningsTime posted the quarter against estimates the company release does not print: revenue of $1.26 billion versus a $1.25 billion estimate, adjusted EPS of $4.57 versus $4.22, and a second-quarter revenue midpoint of $1.60 billion versus a $1.48 billion estimate, plus purchase commitments over $5 billion. The actuals match the release. The estimates are that post, not a Lumentum document: x.com/Earnings_Time/status/2117239597226917904.
The ratio, the approvals, and the cash
The consideration is stock. Approximately $1,132 a share, and the $115 billion enterprise value, use the 28 October closes. The release does not promise that cash on 31 December. Marvell went from $251.65 to $171.41, so the same 4.500 ratio moved from $1,132.43 to $771.35. A $1,132 mark after Monday is a stale Marvell price.
Marvell said preliminary fiscal third-quarter 2027 revenue was consistent with prior guidance and narrowed the range to plus or minus 2 percent from plus or minus 5 percent, midpoint unchanged. The currency fell 12.72 percent anyway. Synergies above $1 billion and year-one accretion sit after a 2028 close, outside these 41 sessions. A break fee is not in the saved joint release, so none is stated. The cash decline of $758.8 million, against a $251.3 million rise in plant, is capacity spending, not a new bond.
The StoneX $1,200 target, in the 27 October FinanceFeeds report, sat against an $818.10 close. The Nasdaq file shows that close and a $840.47 high that day. $1,200 is $71.15 above this bull and 75.34 percent above Monday. It was a standalone initiation, not the live $771.35 exchange value and not the distribution below. Targets near $1,300 and $1,400 were not re-fetched, so they are not reprinted. This bull is $271.15 away from $1,400.
Bull, base and bear
The title prices are the house formula, not a street target and not the merger mark. The inputs are the last 90 daily log-returns in the Nasdaq historical file, from the close on 25 June 2026 through the close on 2 November 2026. The mean, mu, is -0.00256309. The sample standard deviation, sigma, using the n-1 form, is 0.06304226. N is 41. The square root of 41 is 6.40312.
Base equals the spot times the exponential of N times mu, which rounds half up to $616.13. Bull equals the spot times the exponential of N times mu plus 1.5 times sigma times the square root of N, which rounds to $1,128.85. Bear equals the spot times the exponential of N times mu minus 1.0 times sigma times the square root of N, which rounds to $411.49. The bull is above the spot, so the no-drift alternative, which would have been $1,253.94, was not used. The base is under the spot because mu is negative. That is the formula, not a view that the quarter was weak.
Monday’s log-return, the natural log of $684.40 divided by $840.70, is -0.20569. It is the largest absolute move in the 90. Dropping it would lower sigma from 0.06304 to 0.05954. It was kept. The year-end pair does not land within $1 of the banned $1,400 bull, so the shorter paths stay unpublished. Ten sessions, through 16 November, would be a bull of $899.60, a base of $667.08 and a bear of $546.51. Fifteen sessions, ending 23 November, would be $949.88, $658.59 and $515.91. Twenty sessions, ending 1 December, would be $992.45, $650.20 and $490.46.
| Case | Price | Versus $684.40 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $1,128.85 | +64.94 percent | The 31 December close finishes 1.5 standard deviations above the negative drift, and 4.5 Marvell shares do not cap it. |
| Base | $616.13 | -9.98 percent | The shares compound the average daily log-return for 41 sessions. No new guide is required. |
| Bear | $411.49 | -39.88 percent | The same drift, minus one standard deviation, which a further fall in Marvell can deliver through the fixed ratio. |
The bull at $1,128.85 is $3.58 below the unaffected paper price of $1,132.43 and $357.50 above Monday’s live paper price of $771.35. That gap is the width of sigma over 41 sessions, not a copy of the merger paragraph. Monday’s ratio mark sits between the base and the bull.
What happens next
By Thursday 5 November 2026 the 5 October note still lists a webcast at 2:00 p.m. Pacific. The numbers are already out. What matters is whether management repeats the $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion range and the approximately $350 million sequential line, or qualifies commitments above $5 billion. A repeated guide does not lift the close through $771.35, because that level is 4.5 Marvell shares. A cut would give the negative drift a fundamental story. The drift is already in the 90 returns.
By Monday 16 November 2026 the unused ten-session path is a bull of $899.60 and a bear of $546.51. That bull is still $171.75 above the live exchange value of $771.35. If Marvell does not recover, the ratio keeps Lumentum from the year-end bull even if the optical guide holds. The checkpoint is the pair of official closes.
By Thursday 31 December 2026 the title path is in force. The base at $616.13 is 9.98 percent under Monday because mu is negative. The bull at $1,128.85 needs the extra 1.5 standard deviations and a ratio that does not cap the stock. The bear at $411.49 is the drift minus one standard deviation. Closing, on the companies’ sentence, is a 2028 event.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Lumentum stock prediction into year-end?
The bull is $1,128.85 and the bear is $411.49. The base on the same 90 log-returns and 41 sessions is $616.13, under Monday’s $684.40 Nasdaq close, because the average daily log-return is negative. These prices are not Marvell’s approximately $1,132 paper bid and not the StoneX $1,200 target from 27 October. The horizon is the 31 December 2026 close, skipping Thanksgiving Day and Christmas Day only.
Has the November quarter already been reported?
Yes. The results page is dated 2 November 2026. Net revenue was $1.26 billion and non-GAAP EPS was $4.57, with a Q2 guide of $1.575 billion to $1.625 billion. On 5 October the company had set the release for after the close on 5 November. The print moved up with the merger announcement. This path does not wait for the call and does not invent a second set of figures.
Why did the shares fall 18.59 percent on a beat?
The quarter was inside the old revenue range and above the old margin and EPS tops. The consideration is 4.500 Marvell shares. Marvell fell 12.72 percent on Monday, to $171.41, so the paper bid fell from $883.80 to $771.35. Lumentum fell further, from $840.70 to $684.40, and finished $86.95 below that live bid. The drop is the ratio and the spread, not a revenue miss against the August guide.
What is Lumentum worth if the deal ratio holds?
At Monday’s official closes, 4.5 times Marvell’s $171.41 is $771.35. Lumentum closed at $684.40, a 12.70 percent gross gap. The release’s approximately $1,132 used 28 October closes, when Marvell was $251.65 and 4.5 times that price was $1,132.43. The companies expect closing in the first half of 2028, after votes and regulatory approvals. Year-end is not the closing date, so the ratio is a cap and a spread, not cash due on 31 December.
Where is the close versus the moving averages?
The 20-day average is $901.46 and the 50-day average is $919.26. Monday’s $684.40 is 24.08 percent under the first and 25.55 percent under the second. It is also under the prior five-session low of $756.00. The five sessions including Monday ran from a $679.00 low to a $978.40 high. The close is $5.40 above that low. Both averages are still above a price that has already broken them.
Is the $1,128.85 bull just the merger price renamed?
No. The bull is the spot times the exponential of 41 times mu plus 1.5 sigma times the square root of 41. It prints $1,128.85, which is $3.58 under the unaffected paper price of $1,132.43 and $357.50 above Monday’s live paper price of $771.35. The StoneX $1,200 target is a third number, from a 27 October initiation, and it is not in the title. A bull near $1,400 was the old collision and was not reused.
This is not financial advice.